Biden Given Better Than 70% Chance to Win Election After Mail-In Ballots Swing Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin

Donald Trump looking pensive

Even though millions of ballots have yet to be counted, US President Donald Trump is already proclaming victory. Oddsmakers are disagreeing with him. Photo by Gage Skidmore (flickr).
  • Early returns for overnight results show that Donald Trump’s claim of a win on Tuesday was premature
  • Overnight counting of mail-in ballots in Wisconsin led to Biden surging into the lead in that state
  • He also leads in Nevada and Michigan, and is closing the gap in Pennsylvania

Incumbent Donald Trump declared a win in the US Presidential election in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. As dawn broke, though, Joe Biden was suddenly surging ahead in both the voting and the betting odds.

At 4:30 am on Wednesday, oddsmakers were offering Biden just a 29.2% chance of winning the Presidency. Overnight counting of mail-in ballots in several states led a significant changing of that prognosis. The live election odds give Biden a 76.5% chance of winning the election. Trump’s probability of earning a victory faded to 23.5%.

The odds on who will win Michigan and Wisconsin have also swung massively in Biden’s favor.

Odds To Win Key Swing States in 2020 US Presidential Election

State Biden Odds Trump Odds
Arizona -2500 +850
Georgia +155 -135
Michigan -575 +360
Nevada -650 +400
North Carolina +300 -450
Pennsylvania -180 +135
Wisconsin -1400 +650

Odds as of Nov. 4th.

Votes are still being counted in Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

Biden Headed For Wisconsin Win

As mail-in ballots were counted overnight, Biden pulled slightly ahead of Trump in the race for the Badger State. More than 1.9 million Wisconsinites voted by mail and those ballots were the last to be counted.

Nearly all have now been counted. Biden’s current lead is by a scant 0.6 points, a margin of just over 20,000 out of 3.2 million votes tallied.

With nearly all votes counted, Biden had a lead of sixth-tenths of a percentage point over Trump, a margin narrow enough to allow Trump to request a recount if it stands.

Michigan a Virtual Tie

Counting also continued in Michigan throughout the night. As of 7:50 am Wednesday morning, the race in the state was in a virtual tie.

Biden pulled into the lead circa 9:00 am ET.

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson tweeted early Wednesday morning that hundreds of thousands of ballots in the state’s largest jurisdictions, including Detroit, Grand Rapids, Flint, Warren and Sterling Heights, are still being counted.

Georgia Too Close to Call

Even though over 90% of the ballots have been counted, Georgia still can’t be called for either candidate. Trump currently leads by a margin of 118,000 votes.

However, vote counting has yet to be completed heavily-populated Georgia counties such as Fulton, DeKalb and Gwinnett. All of them traditionally tend to skew toward the Democrats.

Based on that data, a play on Biden at +115 offers serious value. A Democrat hasn’t won the Peach State since Bill Clinton in 1992.

Nevada Will Make People Wait

Election officials in Nevada announced that a final tally of all ballots wouldn’t be revealed until Thursday at 9:00 am. Biden currently leads Trump 49.3% (588,252 votes) to 48.7 (580,605) with 86% of all ballots tabulated.

Republicans haven’t won Nevada since George W Bush in 2004.

Pennsylvania Moving Toward Biden

On the surface, things look good for Trump in the Keystone State. He’s currently up on Biden by more than 10 points. Trump has garnered 54.8% (3,015,227) of the vote. Biden is at 44.5% (2,427,686).

However, if the pattern in the breakdown of mail-in ballots counted thus far were to continue, projections are that Biden will overtake Trump and win the state.

There’s a total of 1.4 million mail-in ballots that election officials are counting. Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar is reporting that the votes already counted are going 78% in favor of Biden.

Those numbers reflect the pre-election polls that was showing Democrats holding that level of margin via mail-in balloting.

North Carolina Looks Like a Trump Win

The Democrats are making North Carolina a tighter race than in most elections but it doesn’t appear that there’s going to be enough momentum for them to carry the state.

Currently, with 95% of all votes counted, Trump leads with 50.1% (2,732,120 votes). Biden is at 48.7% (2,655,383).

Approximately 117,000 outstanding absentee by-mail ballots require counting The state allows counting to continue until Nov. 12th as long as they are postmarked by Nov. 3rd.

Republicans have carried the Tar Heel State in nine of the last 10 elections.

Trump Win Call Premature

Many Republicans were among those roundly criticizing Trump for his stunt of claiming a win early Wednesday. It was premature then and it looks like he’ll be wearing egg on his face when all the votes are counted.

The current path to victory overwhelmingly favors Biden. He’s up 238-212 in Electoral College votes. If he carries Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16) and Nevada (6), Biden has his necessary 270 to win the White House.

Latest posts