Bundesliga Matchday 33 Odds & Picks: Leipzig & Dortmund Meet in Top 3 Clash

TImo Werner

Timo Werner will be leaving Germany to join Chelsea next season, but this weekend his RB Leipzig side have an important top four match against Borussia Dortmund. Photo by @SquawkaNews (Twitter)
  • The penultimate round of Bundesliga fixtures kicks off on Saturday in Matchday 33
  • Key relegation scrap between Mainz and Werder Bremen
  • Odds for each game on Matchday 33 plus our best bets for the card follow below

It was a closer match than some may have expected, but Bayern Munich did just enough to wrap up their eighth-straight Bundesliga title in midweek play against Werder Bremen with a 1-0 win.

This week all matches will take place at 9:30 am EST on Saturday morning and plenty is still on the line in the league including who will finish second, Champions League and Europa League placings as well as relegation.

In midweek play during Matchday 32, for the first time since the restart, Bundesliga home teams had more wins than road teams with a 5-1-3 (WDL) record. Overall though, road teams have still held the edge at 16-17-31. Backing both teams to score since the restart has also been a winning proposition at 35-29.

Let’s look ahead to Saturday’s card and make a few best bets for the weekend.

Bundesliga Matchday 33 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Bayern Munich -1.5, -2 (-120) -425 O 3.5 (-115)
Freiburg +1.5, +2 (EVEN) +950 U 3.5 (-105)
Draw N/A +525 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Cologne 0 (+105) +175 O 3, 3.5 (EVEN)
Eintracht Frankfurt 0 (-125) +130 U 3, 3.5 (-125)
Draw N/A +280 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Schalke +0.5, +1 (EVEN) +400 O 2.5, 3 (-105)
Wolfsburg -0.5, -1 (-120) -165 U 2.5, 3 (-115)
Draw N/A +310 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Mainz 0 (-115) +155 O 2.5, 3 (-115)
Werder Bremen 0 (-105) +160 U 2.5, 3 (-105)
Draw N/A +250 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Fortuna Dusseldorf -0.5 (-105) -110 O 2.5, 3 (-115)
Augsburg +0.5 (-115) +280 U 2.5, 3 (-120)
Draw N/A +280 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Hertha Berlin +1 (-125) +400 O 3, 3.5 (+105)
Bayer Leverkusen -1 (+105) -170 U 3, 3.5 (-125)
Draw N/A +320 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
RB Leipzig 0, -0.5 (EVEN) +125 O 3 (-110)
Borussia Dortmund 0, +0.5 (-120) +180 U 3 (-110)
Draw N/A +270 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Paderborn +1.5, +2 (-115) +900 O 3.5 (-110)
Borussia Monchengladbach -1.5, -2 (-105) -385 U 3.5 (-110)
Draw N/A +500 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Hoffenheim -1 (+105) -170 O 3 (-105)
Union Berlin +1 (-125) +425 U 3 (-115)
Draw N/A +320 N/A

All odds taken June 18

Pick 1: Cologne vs Eintracht Frankfurt

With just two matches remaining both of these teams likely have very little to play for. But, there is an outside shot still of Frankfurt reaching a Europa League spot, and also an outside shot of Cologne falling into the relegation zone.

Frankfurt have 41 points and sit ninth, five points back of both Wolfsburg and Hoffenheim who are sixth and seventh with 46 points. Frankfurt kept these hopes alive with Wednesday’s 2-1 win over Schalke. It was their fourth win in five matches and the team has scored multiple goals in each of those four wins. They’ve also scored multiple goals in six of their eight Bundesliga matches since the restart and OVER 2.5 goal totals have been paying out like an atm in seven of those eight matches. In fact, in half of their games, the scoreline has exceeded three goals with totals of four, five, six and seven.

When it comes to Cologne, the Billy Goats are just six points above 16th-place Dusseldorf who occupy the relegation playoff spot. They are likely safe based off goal-differential at worst, but would surely like to confirm their safety win a win on Saturday. Wins have eluded Cologne of late though and they are still winless since the restart at 0-3-4 (WDL) and winless in eight overall if you look back before the stoppage.

They have been consistent though in playing open matches. All of their games since the restart have seen both teams score and six of seven have gone OVER 2.5. Additionally, Cologne are now on a streak of 18 matches where they have scored a goal.

There’s enough still on the line for both teams where I can see this trend continuing this weekend.

Pick: BTTS & OVER 2.5 goals (-150)

Pick 2: RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund

In what surely looks like the game of the week between the second and third-place teams in the league, some of the luster has worn off with Bayern already having won the title.

That said, there are still bragging rights for second place up for grabs and RB Leipzig have yet to officially lock up Champions League play for next season. At 63 points, they are four points ahead of fifth-place Borussia Monchengladbach and three back of second-place Dortmund.

That should be plenty of motivation for Julian Nagelsmann’s side who hopes to finish out the Bundesliga year on a high note.

On a normal occasion, I would say this match should be filled with plenty of fireworks and likely a good amount of goals. When the teams last met in December it was an entertaining 3-3 draw.

However, since Dortmund came up short to Bayern Munich on Matchday 28, which basically decided the title race, the wind has seemed to come out of Lucien Favre’s teams’ sails. The Black and Yellow were drawn 0-0 at halftime with bottom-side Paderborn in their next match, though eventually went on to win 6-1.

Their following two matches were uninspiring 1-0 wins over Hertha Berlin and Fortuna Dusseldorf. The Dusseldorf win didn’t come until a late stoppage-time winner by Erling Haaland. On Wednesday, Dortmund were home to the relegation-threatened Mainz and put in a dismal performance, losing 2-0.

It’s unlikely Leipzig will want to leave anything to chance for the last day of the season when it comes to finishing in the top four and have been in blistering form of late. Leipzig have remained undefeated since the restart and has just a single defeat in their past 23 Bundesliga matches.

On Wednesday, they had looked to have the full three points wrapped up with a 2-0 lead over Dusseldorf with just three minutes to go in regular time, yet late goals at the 87′ and 92′ minutes secured the improbable draw for Dusseldorf.

In their two matches prior, Leipzig were 2-0 winners over a Hoffenheim side which had just sacked their manager, and previously had their own struggles with Paderborn in a 1-1 draw.

This all comes down to motivation for me. I think Leipzig should have more of it and wouldn’t be surprised to see them win, though they could also be facing some distractions. That being with star striker Timo Werner’s recent signing with Premier League side Chelsea and his desire to leave the club prior to Leipzig’s Champions League game in August. Dortmund must also be embarrassed after their performance against Mainz and should bounce back. Another draw between these two could be in the cards Saturday.

Pick: Draw +270

2020 English Premier League Trophy Odds Tracker

Pick 3: Mainz vs Werder Bremen

This is a very intriguing match with serious relegation implications on the line.

Mainz pulled off a huge upset of Borussia Dortmund (2-0) on Wednesday, giving them now 34 points which is five more than Dusseldorf in the relegation playoff position and six more than Werder Bremen in the direct relegation spot. With a -22 goal-differential, that also trumps both Dusseldorf (-28) and Bremen (-30).

Mainz will be full of confidence after Wednesday’s win and know that even a defeat could still likely be enough to secure safety if Dusseldorf were to fall to Augsburg.

That’s no given though and it’s no given that Werder will roll over and hand them the win. It’s do-or-die for Florian Kohfeldt’s side who may be unlikely of catching Mainz for 15th, but are still alive to overtake Dusseldorf for 16th and play in the relegation playoff game, rather than be sent directly to the 2. Bundesliga.

Dusseldorf have been scrappy since the restart and drew against Leipzig and was seconds away from doing so against Dortmund as well. With winnable games against Augsburg and Cologne remaining, Werder can’t assume Fortuna won’t pick up any more points.

Therefore they’ll have to go all-out in this match in hopes of a win. And while Werder’s attack has scored just eight goals since the restart (with five of those coming in one game), a leaky Mainz defense which has allowed 63 goals on the year should create some scoring opportunities for a desperate Bremen side.

Either Bremen will score or will be looser at the back and concede themselves—either way opening up a match which should see few goals.

Earlier this year Mainz were 5-0 winners and each of the past five meetings with these teams have seen OVER 2.5 goal totals.

Pick: Over 2.5 goals (-138)

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