Chiefs Are Double-Digit Favorites But The Value Could Be With the Browns

Chiefs Vs Browns With Chiefs And Browns Background

  • The Cleveland Browns take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC divisional round on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium.
  • Kansas City is currently a 10-point betting favorite against Cleveland.
  • The Chiefs were 0-7-1 ATS during the second half of the season.

The Cleveland Browns made history last weekend when they won their first playoff game in over a quarter of a century. But if the 2020 Browns are to continue their dream run, they will have to make more history.

1994 was the last time that the Browns played in the Divisional round. The last time they won two games in a single postseason? You have to go all the way back to 1950 when the Browns defeated the New York Giants in the divisional round and the L.A. Rams in the NFL championship game.

So what are the chances that 70 years later, the Browns will win more than one playoff game? According to online sportsbook, it’s 20.2% or a moneyline odds of +395. The same online bookmaker says that Cleveland is a 10-point betting underdog in Sunday’s divisional playoff game.

Coming to Arrowhead

Up next for the no. 6 ranked Browns are the AFC’s no. 1 seed and defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs finished the regular season with a league-best 14-2 record. They won 10 straight games before expectedly losing their final assignment. As the top seed of the playoffs, the Chiefs earned a first round bye and will be well-rested.

Being well-rested could work both ways. By game time, it will be three weeks ( 20 days to be exact ) since Patrick Mahomes’ last game. Sure, Mahomes is coming off an MVP-type season where he ranked 2nd in passing yards, 4th in passing touchdowns, and 5th in interceptions. But in his last game played, he completed only 55% of his passes in a shaky 17-14 win over the 4-12 Falcons at Arrowhead.

Kansas City is a massive -500 betting favorite but the implied probability there is “only” 83.3%. There is still a chance that the Browns could pull off the upset, just like they did last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. After their 11-0 start, who would’ve thought that the Browns could beat them in two consecutive weeks to get here?

Riding With the Underdogs?

While only a few are expecting the Browns to flip the switch and win outright, there are many who may ride with the underdogs when it comes to betting against the spread. Kansas City went 0-7-1 ATS during the second half of the season. The last time they covered a spread was on November 1, 2020, when they beat up the lowly Jets 35-9.

The Browns were just 3-3 ATS in their last six games played but covered three out of their last five games on the road. Cleveland has also covered in five out of their last seven trips to Arrowhead. Not only will the Browns still be on a high after last week’s monumental victory, they will have head coach Kevin Stefanski back on the sidelines.

These teams have not played each other since 2018. The Chiefs have won each of their last three meetings but two of those wins were by less than one touchdown. Kansas City’s last seven wins of the current season were by six points or fewer. Cleveland’s last three losses of the season were by 10 points or fewer. Sure, there’s a good chance that the Chiefs are going to advance to the Conference Finals. But the Browns should make this game closer than what the oddsmakers think.

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