Dems Underwhelm on Election Night; Trump Favored – Crucial States Too Close to Call

Key Points:
  • Donald Trump significantly outperformed the polls once again, especially in Florida. He’s now the betting favorite to win the election.
  • In addition to Joe Biden’s disappointing results (relative to his expectations), Democrats will maintain control of the House but won fewer seats than anticipated and are underdogs to capture a majority of the Senate.
  • Crucial battlegrounds like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada, are all too close to call. After Arizona went to Biden, the Democratic challenger is still in an excellent position to win the Electoral College.
Update (3 am PST):

Donald Trump is no longer favored to win the presidency after a late-arriving ballot dump in Wisconsin swung the state in Joe Biden’s favor. The former Vice President is likely to win Nevada as well, significantly limiting the President’s paths to victory.

Election Night was not the Joe Biden landslide pollsters promised. For the second presidential election in a row, Donald Trump’s support was tremendously undercounted – he carried Florida, Texas, and Ohio, all states believed to be in play for the Democrats.

He’s also ending the night with leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. However, some of the remaining ballots left to be tallied are mail-in votes and from predominately Democratic areas, which means this race is considerably closer than it might look on paper.

Donald Trump is projected to win Texas, Florida, Ohio, South Carolina, Alabama, Louisiana, Wyoming, Missouri, Indiana, Arkansas, Nebraska, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia and Kansas.

2020 Presidential Election Winner

  • Matchup Odds
  • Donald Trump -275
  • Joe Biden+190

Joe Biden flipped Arizona early Wednesday morning, setting the stage for a potential electoral tie or Democratic victory if he’s able to pull ahead in one of the Midwestern battleground states still being counted.

Both candidates gave speeches to the public, telling their respective supporters they’re anticipating an electoral victory. Naturally, the two announcements were received entirely differently by the media.

Joe Biden’s declaration of an impending win was considered an intelligent strategic move, taking charge of the narrative. The President’s speech was confirmation that he plans to steal the election, just as the pundits had expected all along.

As anticipated, this presidential election will be a long, drawn-out war, complete with recounts, court battles, and controversies.

Before I Move On…

The Democratic Party might be the most arrogant, corrupt, outrageously dumb organization in the history of US politics. They’re so beholden to their corporate masters’ and donors’ money, DNC officials learned absolutely nothing in four years.

That this race is so close despite the incumbent getting hit with a pandemic and economic collapse in his fourth year is humiliating.

There’s never been an easier layup – so they ran the guy generating zero enthusiasm, courted a tiny sliver of GOP castaways at the expense of their most energized voting blocs, ignored Latino voters, and offered working-class Americans nothing but empty platitudes about “the soul of the nation” and not being Donald Trump.

It doesn’t matter if Joe Biden edges out an electoral victory at this point.

The Democrats probably aren’t going to win the Senate, and the election is so close, the former Vice President won’t have a mandate from voters to enact anything anyway.

At best, we’ll get four impotent years of Democratic officials bitching about the Republicans blocking everything while “nothing fundamentally changes.” On second thought, that’s probably precisely what both parties want.

The funniest part of all of this is that the Democrats won’t learn a single lesson.

This is twice now working-class, and rural voters have rejected their neoliberal nonsense, attempting to send a message that the people demand tangible, quantifiable improvements to their living conditions. Twice the coastal elite has been caught completely off-guard by how despised they are by regular people.

There’s nothing the Democratic Party deserves more than four more years of Donald Trump. I don’t love his chances of winning, giving the current electoral map layout, but God, do they deserve it.

Crucial States Remaining

At the time of writing this, Joe Biden just secured Arizona – the first state from the 2016 electoral map to flip. Nevada looks promising to go the same way. As a result, Donald Trump will need to hang onto Georgia or Pennsylvania, along with Michigan and Wisconsin, to complete his second consecutive Election Day upset.

Things look good for Trump, but there are still many ballots to count – many of which hail from fiercely Democratic regions. The upcoming days, weeks, or months will be spent determining how long states have to tally outstanding votes.

GOP lawyers will push to end the counting as close to Election Day as possible. At the same time, Democrats want every ballot counted – even those arriving throughout the rest of the week (assuming they’re post-dated to Tuesday or earlier).


Candidate to Win Georgia

  • Matchup Odds
  • Donald Trump -450
  • Joe Biden+300

With 92% of the vote total reported, Donald Trump is currently winning in Georgia 50.5% to Biden’s 48.3%. He’s ahead by roughly 102,000 votes, but the counties waiting to be counted are near Atlanta and expected to favor the Democrats. However, some small rural GOP precincts are remaining as well.

Georgia stopped counting around 10:30 pm on Election Night due to a software error delaying absentee ballots’ count. There were also issues with some polling locations sending workers home, further putting the state on hold until Wednesday morning.

I think Joe Biden is going to flip Georgia. Between the blue precincts remaining to be counted and the absentee ballots, momentum seems to be in Joe Biden’s favor. Also, as an admitted half-a-conspiracy theorist, whenever I hear “software issues” connected with ballot counting, I smell shenanigans.

Biden at +300 is exceptional value for Georgia.


Candidate to Win Michigan

  • Matchup Odds
  • Donald Trump -200
  • Joe Biden+150
If Trump loses Georgia, he needs Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina to secure the electoral college victory.

Election Night broadcasts showed the President with healthy leads in Michigan all night. Still, it’s important to remember the Midwestern state Trump flipped in 2016 didn’t start counting mail-in ballots until Tuesday evening.

A promising sign for the incumbent is that he’s outperforming his 2016 totals in several counties. In Menominee, Trump increased his share from 62% to 64.4%; in Macomb, he’s up from 53.6% to 59.1%.

The President is leading by 5 points with 76% of precincts reporting. Michigan’s secretary of state said that she expects to have “a very clear picture, if not a final picture” of the winner by Wednesday night.

The absentee ballots remaining will tighten up the race for Michigan significantly. However, Trump has shown the ability to grow his rural and working-class electorate from 2016, which gives me confidence that he’ll carry the former “blue wall” state in 2020.


Candidate to Win Pennsylvania

  • Matchup Odds
  • Donald Trump -280
  • Joe Biden+205

Pennsylvania will decide the next President of the United States.

Trump finished Election Night leading by nearly 13 points with 74% of precincts reporting. However, state officials have already said that counting is going slower than expected.

The Keystone State is accepting mail-in ballots through Friday, as long as they’re post-dated to November 3. 78.4% of absentee votes have been for Joe Biden, and only 28% of counties have reported their absentee tallies.

So, the race is still much closer than it appeared on Tuesday. There are over 1 million ballots left to count, and Donald Trump is currently ahead by approximately 700,000 votes.

I think Joe Biden will win in Pennsylvania after a prolonged legal battle over counting absentee ballots.

I suspect Trump’s margin will gradually shrink as Friday approaches, but election officials still won’t be done tallying. A court will decide whether they get an extension or not.

As I wrote previously, I think the Democrats will outmaneuver the Trump administration during the “legal” phase of this election, handing Biden the presidency.


Candidate to Win Wisconsin

  • Matchup Odds
  • Donald Trump -135
  • Joe Biden+105

The race in Wisconsin is extremely tight early Wednesday morning. With roughly 95% of precincts reporting, Joe Biden has taken the lead by roughly 20,000 votes. The absentee ballots and ballots from liberal counties were counted last, so it’s unlikely Donald Trump will regain his advantage.

With Wisconsin going to Joe Biden, the President needs wins in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania if he’s to get a second term in office.

We will keep you updated with all the latest election handicapping news as results continue to roll in this week!

Make sure to check out our top-rated political betting sites to maximize the thrill of these last days/weeks/months of the 2020 presidential election!

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