Dolphins vs. Broncos: NFL Betting Trends, Stats And Computer Predictions – Week 11

The Miami Dolphins (6-3) bring a five-game winning streak into a matchup against the Denver Broncos (3-6) on Sunday, November 22, 2020 at Empower Field at Mile High. Miami is in the contest. An over/under of is set for the contest.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of November 16, 2020, 2:41 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Dolphins vs. Broncos odds

Computer Pick

ATS Over/Under Score Prediction
Dolphins (-2.5) Over (45.5) Dolphins 29, Broncos 19

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm (raw power score) that ranks head-to-head matchup results within a closed network of games. Prediction confidence is determined by the delta between each team’s raw power score.

Dolphins Betting Insights

  • Miami has put together a 7-2 record against the spread this season.
  • The Dolphins have an ATS record of 1-0 when playing as at least 2.5-point favorites.
  • Just five of Miami’s nine games this year have gone over the point total (44.4% of its outings).
  • The Dolphins average points scored this season (27.9) and the Broncos points allowed (28.2) are within 0.3 points of each other.
  • When they meet or go over their scoring average this season, Miami is 5-1 and 6-0 against the spread.
  • Denver is 2-3 overall and 4-1 against the spread this season in games where they allow fewer than 28.2 points.
  • Miami has a 3-1 record against the spread on the road this year, and is 3-1 overall in away games.

Get more NFL betting picks and tips from the PlayPicks staff HERE

Broncos Betting Insights

  • Five Denver’s nine games this year have gone over the point total (55.6% of its outings).
  • Denver has a 5-4 record against the spread.
  • Denver’s record against the spread in home games this year is an even 2-2, and its record at home overall is 1-3.
  • The Dolphins defense has allowed 20.2 points per game this season, about the same amount as the 20.7 the Broncos have scored.
  • Denver is 2-2 overall and 3-1 against the spread when they score at least 20.7 points this season.
  • When Miami allows opposing offenses to put 20.2 points or fewer on the scoreboard this year, they are 4-0 overall and 4-0 against the spread.

Scoring Stats

Off. Points per Game (Rank) Def. Points per Game (Rank) Average Total
Dolphins 27.9 (9) 20.2 (5) 48.1
Broncos 20.7 (28) 28.2 (26) 48.9

Dolphins Players to Watch

  • Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown for 1,535 yards while completing 70.1% of his passes (138-of-197), with 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions in six games this year (255.8 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 25 times for 135 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 22.5 yards per game.
  • In seven games in 2020, Matt Breida has rushed for 128 yards on 37 carries (18.3 ypg), with zero rushing touchdowns.
  • This season, DeVante Parker has 38 catches (on 56 targets) to lead the team with 462 yards (51.3 per game) with three touchdowns in nine games.
  • Mike Gesicki’s statline this year shows 24 catches for 371 yards and two touchdowns over nine games. He puts up 41.2 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 41 times.
  • Jakeem Grant has caught 22 passes on 29 targets for 229 yards and one touchdown, averaging 25.4 yards per game in nine contests in 2020.
  • Emmanuel Ogbah has collected a team-leading 8.0 sacks, while adding 4.0 TFL and 26 tackles over nine games.
  • In nine games over the 2020 campaign, Jerome Baker has totaled 69 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and two sacks and leads the team in tackles.
  • Xavien Howard has intercepted five passes to lead the team while adding 25 tackles and 10 passes defended nine over games.

Broncos Players to Watch

  • This year, Drew Lock has racked up 1,497 passing yards (213.9 yards per game) while going 131-for-238 (55% completion percentage) and throwing seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions in seven games.
  • Melvin Gordon III has churned out a team-high 439 rushing yards (54.9 yards per game) and scored four touchdowns in eight games.
  • Phillip Lindsay has 312 yards on 57 carries (52.0 ypg), with one rushing touchdown over the course of six games.
  • This season, Jerry Jeudy has 34 catches (on 69 targets) to lead the team with 552 yards (61.3 per game) with two touchdowns in nine games.
  • Tim Patrick’s statline this year shows 31 catches for 444 yards and three touchdowns in eight games. He puts up 55.5 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 48 times.
  • Noah Fant has totaled 367 yards on 35 passes with two touchdowns in 2020, averaging 45.9 yards per game on 53 targets in eight contests.
  • Bradley Chubb has 5.5 sacks to lead the team, and has also collected 6.0 TFL and 25 tackles over nine games.
  • Alexander Johnson has totaled 77 tackles, 3.0 TFL, and one sack to lead the team in tackles so far in nine games over the 2020 campaign.
  • Justin Simmons has a team-high three interceptions and has tacked on 58 tackles, 1.0 TFL, and five passes defended nine in games this season.

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