I made some over-investments in games where the odds were long – trusting my own insights where maybe I should have trusted that the bookies had an idea of what they were doing…today’s bets will be a bit more standardised with the units, but my underlying approach of looking at recent match-ups + champion preferences + Gold-difference-per-minute stats will still be the same.
Pain ML vs Vorax @ 1.44 – 1u
Both teams are sitting at 2-2, and in terms of matchups-played the quality of competition has been quite similar as well. Pain has lost to 2nd place Red Canids & 3rd Place Loud, and have only been the 2 worst teams so far. Vorax has beaten 3rd Place Loud, but lost to lower-ranked team Rengsa, so it is a real mix-up when comparing on this. The difference for me is that Pain are showing a +161 Gold-difference-per minute (GDM) to Vorax’s -42. Vorax did dispatch Loud very handily, but it shows they are struggling to match-up against the low ranked teams in fundamental things like farming. Due to this, I am not expecting consistency and I am hoping this week will show a return to normalcy – with the better fundamental team in Pain taking the win.
It is worth noting though that odds for Vorax are around 2.7…and this match is a BO1. If you’re in a country that allows for live-betting, check in at the start of the match to see the draft – if Vorax’s draft shows better it could be worth a punt on them due to the long odds.
Kabum ML vs FURIA @ 1.82 – 1u
Bit of a trash-can rivalry here, but with a slight favourite in my mind. Kabum’s losses (1-3) have been to the teams sitting in 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Furia’s (1-3) are to the teams 3rd, 4th, and 5th. It’s also worth noting that 1st and 2nd, Flamengo and Red Canids, are a tier above the others in terms of stats (e.g. +395 and +276 GDM respectively).
Despite this, Kabum still holds a better GDM than Furia, and on average game time are 8 minutes longer than Furia (they aren’t getting steamrolled). Both teams have beat the same team in Rengsa.
Both teams are susceptible to mistakes, and it is BO1, but if the matchup unfolds in a standard way I expect Kabum to take it. The odds are also good!
DRX -1.5 vs Fredit Brion @ 1.91 – 1u
Okay so, somehow Fredit outplayed Damwon’s teamfight and beat them 2-0 but aside from that match all signs point to Fredit being the league’s whipping boys.
They have lost 2-0 in every other other match – GenG (good team), Hanwha (good team), Afreeca (low/mid table) and Nongshim (low table). DRX compares similar to Afreeca and Nongshim.
While Fredit have had mixed fixtures so far, the main reason i’m feeling good about a -1.5 is that their GDM is -253 – THREE times worst than the next worst team (Nongshim -88).
Fredit can play a teamfight, but in most of their games they are so far behind by the midgame they dont even get the chance. I expect their 2-0 losses to continue.
GenG First Tower vs LSB @ 1.57 – 1u
It’s abundantly clear that GenG are the better team, and unfortunately the odds reflect that. The odds are too low to be worth betting on for a GenG win, so i’ve gone with a punt on first tower instead.
GenG has played 4 of the 5 top teams and hit First tower on 69% of them. LSB has not played any of the top 3 yet, but to be fair they still have hit FT on 50% of their games.
Unless GenG make a mistake they should be setting the pace and claiming the first objectives.
FPX ML vs IG @ 1.64 – 1u
Putting my vote on the favourites for this game, as the odds feel quite good. FPX have had easier fixtures but have dispatched of all the teams 2-0 and handily – boasting the top GDM in the league and the shortest average game length amongst top teams. Their only loss is to frontrunners Edward Gaming, in a 2-1 loss.
Invictus have done what they should do as a mid-table team. Beating lower opponents, but struggling against other mid table squads, such as LNG and WE. I see FPX on a level of LNG and WE (mid/high table pushing for a top 3/4 finish) and expect the game to play out accordingly.
Once again i’m running out of time for the write-up, but here are some other picks this weekend. Best of luck
CGA ML vs Sengoku @ 2.3 – 1u
Fukuoaka ML vs Sengoku @ 1.88 – 1u
Rascal Jester ML vs Burning Core @ 1.6 – 1u
Rogue First Tower vs Vitality @ 1.6 – 1u
Rainbow7 ML vs All Knights @ 1.95 – 1u