Miami vs NC State Picks and Odds

Manny Diaz coaching

Manny Diaz and the Canes look to move to 6-1 on Friday night. (Photo by Doug Murray/Icon Sportswire)
  • Miami is a 10.5-point favorite over NC State in a pivotal ACC matchup this Friday at 7:30pm EST on ESPN
  • These conference opponents have met just twice in the last decade; the Hurricanes won both matchups
  • Read below for odds, spread and analysis on this ACC intra-division matchup

For two programs that have been consistently inconsistent in recent years, 2020 has been refreshing. Miami has compiled a 5-1 record this year, with the lone loss coming to the first-ranked Clemson Tigers. Meanwhile, NC State currently sits at 4-2 a season after they finished 4-8.

Friday night will be a vital result for both teams. The winner’s momentum will be even stronger and they’ll stay in striking distance of the top of the conference. The loser will have their ACC hopes slashed, and a poor result could threaten the momentum that has been built up in 2020.

#12 Miami vs NC State Week 10 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Miami Hurricanes -10.5 (-112) -430 O 58.5 (-114)
NC State Wolfpack +10.5 (-108) +320 U 58.5 (-106)

Odds taken Nov. 4 from FanDuel

Hurricanes Building Strength

Barring their single loss, a 42-17 loss to juggernaut Clemson, this has been a very encouraging 2020 season in Coral Gables. With new offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee and quarterback transfer D’Eriq King, the Hurricanes have developed the explosive offense that has been lacking in this program for so long.

King has thrown for over 1,400 yards and rushed for over 300, while accounting for 13 touchdowns through the first six games of the season.

Miami has had talented defenses in recent years, and that is the case again in 2020. Through six games, the defense has forced seven fumbles, intercepted seven passes, and sacked the quarterback 15 times.

Opposing offenses have scored 20 or more points on just two occasions this year. The signature group of this defense is the secondary, led by safety Bubba Bolden and Miami legacy Al Blades Jr. at cornerback.

Wolfpack Need to Regroup

This 2020 season has been a big turnaround for Dave Doeren so far, but this stretch of games could bring the house of cards crumbling down. A 48-21 loss to North Carolina last week was expected, but with Miami on Friday and a tough matchup with Liberty two weeks from Saturday, an encouraging season in Raleigh could quickly turn into another discouraging finish for Doeren.

The offensive numbers for NC State are a big sign that this 4-2 record is not what it appears to be. In a year where three different quarterbacks have gotten significant action, the Wolfpack are completing under 60 percent of their passes as a team. The ground game isn’t a huge help, as Wolfpack backs are posting just 3.6 yards per attempt in 2020.

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2020 College Football Conference Title Odds Tracker

What’s the Best Bet?

NC State isn’t special offensively, and there aren’t any signs that they have the defensive stopping power to contain this lightning-fast Hurricane offense. The Wolfpack give up 5.6 yards per play and just under 450 yards per game. On the ground, NC State has a pedestrian defense, allowing 4.3 yards per carry and 182 rushing yards per game.

The one encouraging number for NC State is the Wolfpack’s red zone defense, where they rank 44th nationally, but the Hurricanes have a counter for that. Kicker Jose Borregales has been automatic in 2020, going 10-for-11 on field goals. Even if the Wolfpack defense can bend without breaking on a few possessions against this high octane offense, a trip into the red zone is likely three points for the Hurricanes.

Miami is clearly the better team here, and it isn’t particularly close. The 4-2 record and ranked win over Pitt makes the Wolfpack look like a much stronger commodity than they actually are, but the Hurricanes have a distinct advantage on each side of the ball.

The Pick: Miami -10.5 (-112)

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