NCAAF Free Pick Northwestern Wildcats vs Michigan State Spartans

NCAAF Free Pick: Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan State Spartans

Pat Fitzgerald and the Wildcats head to Spartan Stadium in hopes of remaining unbeaten and improving their claim to the Big Ten West crown. The struggling Spartans welcome Northwestern after a multi-week break following last week’s cancellation of their game against Maryland. Mel Tucker is hoping his offense can get going as they enter Saturday’s contest with just seven points scored in their previous two games.

Sportsbooks are favoring the visiting Wildcats, currently listing them as 13.5-point favorites over the Spartans. Our NCAAF model gives an even larger edge to Northwestern, projecting them to win by a score of 29.5-11.8. With a projected margin of victory just shy of 18 points and a spread of -13.5, our model is suggesting an $83 wager on NORTHWESTERN -13.5 for an $100 average bettor.

Prediction Machine’s NCAAF picks are 486-456 ATS (51.6%) and 524-391 on O/Us (57.3%) since the start of 2019, profiting +65.53 units, or $6,553 for an $100 average bettor. Head over to predictionmachine.com to sign up for a free trial and get access to every NCAAF projection.

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Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan State Spartans (NW -13.5, O/U 41.5)

Why will Northwestern cover the spread?

  • The Wildcats have college football’s best pass defense this season. Their 4.9 yards allowed per pass attempt is the best mark in the nation and they’ve managed a hefty 11 interceptions compared to just four passing touchdowns. The Spartans have largely relied on their passing game to carry the offense, as they’ve averaged 250 passing yards per game and 73.8 rushing yards per contest.
  • Although a vast majority of Michigan State’s yardage has come through the air, they’ve struggled with turnovers and negative plays. Their eight interceptions thrown are tied for most in the Big Ten, while they’ve taken nine sacks in their four games. Northwestern has feasted on opposing QBs this season, posting 11 interceptions and 10 sacks through five games. We’re expecting the Northwestern defense to smother the Spartans, projecting Michigan State for just 11.8 points in this one.

Wildcats at Spartans: How to bet the total

This matchup currently features an OVER/UNDER of 41.5 points. Prediction Machine’s projected score totals 41.3 points (29.5-11.8), giving us no edge on the current total in this game.

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