Saints vs Falcons Odds, Lines & Spread

Taysom Hill preparing to throw a pass

New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) throws during the first half of an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos, Sunday, Nov. 29, 2020, in Denver. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)
  • The New Orleans Saints are 3-point favorites vs the Atlanta Falcons in Week 13 (Sunday 1pm ET)
  • Sunday Betting Record: 4-8-0, -4.20 Units
  • See the game odds, spread, total, plus a preview below

As the replacement for the injured Brees, Taysom Hill has led the Saints to two consecutive wins. That’s what matters most to coach Sean Payton.

But Hill still has much to prove as a starting NFL quarterback. He played impressively in his first game as a starting QB in Week 11, throwing for 233 yards, completing 18 of 23 passes, and running for two touchdowns in a 24-9 win against the Falcons. In his second start against the Denver Broncos, Hill was far less efficient, throwing for only 78 yards.

The Saints’ status as only a 3-point favorite may reflect that Hill is under pressure to demonstrate consistency as Brees’ replacement. The criticism of Hill centers on passing inaccuracy and his tendency to perhaps run too often. He’s quick to abandon the pocket for a chance to dash upfield. This is an important game for the Saints because one of Hill’s primary missions is to make sure that the Saints still have the NFC’s best record when Brees returns.

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
New Orleans Saints -150 -3 (-105) O 46 (-110)
Atlanta Falcons +130 +3 (-118) U 46 (-110)

Odds taken Dec. 5 from DraftKings

Kamara Less Dangerous With Hill At QB

It seems safe to guess that coaches and Hill talked this week about how to get Alvin Kamara more involved in the offense than he has been the past two weeks with Hill as the starter.

Kamara was targeted almost nine times per game (80 targets in nine games) when Brees started. In the past two games, he has been targeted three times. Six times this season Kamara has totaled 65 or more receiving yards, but he has one catch for -2 yards with Hill behind center.

The expectation is Hill will find Kamara more against the Falcons because Hill is starting to understand how to take advantage of all of his options.

Record Doesn’t Tell Falcons’ True Story

The standings show the Falcons are 4-7 with a defense that ranks in the NFL’s bottom five. But the Falcons have won four of their last six games. They believe they have an outside shot at the playoffs.

They’ve also improved defensively as the season has worn on. After giving up 34.5 points per game in their first four games, the Falcons have given up an average of 20.3 in the past seven games. The defense was particularly sharp last week when Atlanta took down the Raiders 43-6.

Hill was able to help the Saints put up 24 points against the Falcons in his first win as a starter. The Falcons are going to contain Hill as a runner in the rematch, forcing him to pass more.

Brees Out A Few More Weeks

Brees has been sidelined since Nov. 15 because of a collapsed lung and 11 cracked ribs. Initially, the projection was he would return for the playoffs.

But Brees is making progress in his rehabilitation and now the thought is he could return in Week 15, 16 or 17.

Against the Falcons, defensive end Marcus Davenport (concussion), running back Ty Montgomery (hamstring) , cornerback Janoris Jenkins and wide receiver Marquez Calloway (knee) are out.

Wide receiver Julio Jones (hamstring) and RB Todd Gurley (knee) are questionable for the Falcons.

Game Too Big For Saints to Fail

In this season’s expanded NFC playoff format, only the top seed receives a bye. The Saints need this game. The Saints have won eight in a row. The talk since Hill took over has been about the need to keep winning. The team seems to have confidence in him.

The Saints are 6-5 against the spread, but this seems like an easy cover

Pick: Saints -3 (-105)

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