Serie A June 20 Odds & Previews: Torino vs Parma & Verona vs Cagliari

Parma

Parma are eyeing up a European spot ahead of the visit of Torino. Photo by @ParmaCalcio_en. (Twitter)
  • Relegation-threatened Torino host Parma in the weekend’s first Serie A match
  • Out of form Cagliari visit Verona in the later kick-off in a quiet weekend for the Italian top flight
  • Get the odds, betting information and picks below

Eight teams are lagging behind in Serie A. Four matches over this weekend will correct that and put all 20 teams on 26 matches played. Torino, Parma, Verona and Cagliari are in action on Saturday in two matches that can impact the relegation and top six contests.

These might not be Italian football’s biggest names, but Verona and Parma are just four points off sixth-placed Napoli. Cagliari are wedged in mid-table for now, though they could slip towards the relegation zone if their poor run continues. Torino are on a poor run and sit just two points above the bottom three.

The odds on the two matches taking place on Saturday, June 20th can be found below.

Torino vs Parma Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Torino pk, -0.5 (-117) +121 Over 2.5 (+105)
Parma pk, +0.5 (-103) +235 Under 2.5 (-125)
Draw N/A +215 N/A

All odds taken Jun. 19

Parma’s return is a wonderful story. It would be magical to see it capped off with a top six berth, which is well within their reach despite losing three of their last five in the league.

Torino are in a much less pleasant spot. Six defeats in a row leaves them two points above the bottom three – they conceded 17 goals in that run.

These are two of the least productive attacking teams in the league. Their non-penalty expected goals rank 20th (Torino) and 15th (Parma) in Serie A this term, and both have significantly overachieved their expected points. A low-scoring affair is probable despite Torino’s defensive struggles.

There isn’t a major difference in quality between these two squads. It would have been feasible to imagine their places switched. While skepticism is necessary when we look at pre-break trends, there are certain examples where form has carried over. A prolonged absence is unlikely to have fixed fundamental issues. Perhaps, like Schalke in the Bundesliga, Torino’s woeful form will continue.

Parma ran out 3-2 victors when the sides met back in September. A repeat of that scoreline would be a shock, but a Parma victory would not. Home advantage has been almost nullified  – Parma are a good price at +235 to take all three points.

Pick: Parma Moneyline (+235)

2020 Serie A Championship Odds Tracker

Verona vs Cagliari Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Verona pk, -0.5 (-125) +100 Over 2, 2.5 (-125)
Cagliari pk, +0.5 (+105) +250 Under 2, 2.5 (+105)
Draw N/A +240 N/A

Three points separate Verona and Cagliari. The general feel around the two clubs couldn’t be much more different at the moment, however, with Verona overachieving and threatening to push for a top six spot while Cagliari are winless in their last 11 Serie A matches.

There are only two absentees for this one. Unfortunately for the visitors, they are without their two most important players in top scorer Joao Pedro and midfielder Radja Nainggolan. Cagliari held Verona to a 1-1 draw earlier in the season with Nainggolan only coming off the bench, but the season’s suspension and the contrast in their form then and now make it hard to judge the importance of that result and performance.

Cagliari had a bizarre campaign. They were unbeaten from mid-September until December 16th and winless since then. Which version will we see on Saturday?

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Verona’s form has been less drastic. They saw their best run (nine matches unbeaten) ended in the final match before the league’s suspension. Their expected numbers are fitting with their performance across the season.

Cagliari’s numbers, per Understat, are less pretty. The suggestion is that they rode their luck in their early season run, scoring at what is an unsustainable rate for the quality of chances they created. The expected points table puts them just outside the bottom three.

If Joao Pedro and Nainggolan were available, the hosts would likely still be favorites. As with all these teams restarting their seasons, there’s a significant chunk of uncertainty, but what we saw from both sides before the league was halted suggests a Verona victory on Saturday afternoon.

Pick: Verona Moneyline (+100)

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