I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving and enjoyed the football that came along with it, albeit we had two games instead of three because of COVID but, this is 2020 but and here we are. This week there are 12 games on the main slate with no BYE weeks to be had and some marquee matchups to watch. With some high-scoring affairs on the horizon and some great GPP contests available on DraftKings, here are some of my favorite stacks to build around.
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New England Patriots
As one of the games that expect to be exciting this week, Cam Newton and the Patriots host the explosive Kyler Murray and the Cardinals in what should be a fast-paced affair, at least on the Cardinals side. I’m expecting the Cardinals to be able to move the ball effectively enough to force the Patriots to have to score consistently in what could be a sneaky high-scoring matchup.
Cam has been able to post 19 or more DraftKings points in three of his last four games. The contest in which he did not reach that mark was against Baltimore’s tough defense in a nasty weather affair a couple of weeks back (Newton posted 16.82 DK points in that game). Newton has four rushing touchdowns in his last four games and has shown the ability to score consistently rushing and throwing the ball. The Cardinals have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the past four weeks while allowing 38 rushing yards per game to the position over that span (third-most in the league). Cam might have a new target that he likes based on last week and due to the unfortunate injury to Rex Burkhead.
James While saw nine targets last week and hauled in six for 64 yards on 39 snaps, the second-most snaps he’s seen this season. Burkhead being out for the season will open up some opportunity for White, who has proven to be an accomplished receiver out of the backfield. Arizona has not allowed much through the air to running backs over the past four weeks. Still, in this matchup with the limited skill position players available, White could see a similar role that he saw last week at a favorable salary of $4,500.
Receiver Jakobi Meyers should be lined up in the slot and looking at Byron Murphy in coverage, who has been gashed over the past four weeks. In his last four matchups with receivers such as Cole Beasley, CeeDee Lamb, and Tyler Lockett twice, Murphy has allowed 25 receptions for 214 yards on 33 targets. Meyers is second on the Patriots in target share and should be looked at often with Damiere Byrd and N’Keal Harry likely held in check on the outside.
Las Vegas Raiders
- QB Derek Carr (DK $5,700)
- TE Darren Waller (DK $6,000)
- WR Nelson Agholor (DK $4,900)
With the Las Vegas Raiders, there are questions about how many times Derek Carr will be expected to throw the ball week to week. Josh Jacobs is the Raiders’ best offensive player, making you wonder what could happen depending on his effectiveness. With that said, the Falcons have been very good against the run. In fact, they’ve allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the running back position over the last four weeks.
Carr threw 31 passes last week, and that could be the projected output for his this week against a Falcon team that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position, specifically 300 yards per game through the air. When Carr has been allowed to throw the ball, he’s been extremely efficient with the seventh-best adjusted completion percentage and the fourth-most adjusted yards per attempt.
Carr’s preferred pass target is Darren Waller, with a 28 percent target share, by far the team’s highest. Furthermore, Waller has accumulated 541 air yards this season (fifth-most among tight ends) and 17 red-zone targets, the most among tight ends. The Falcons have allowed the most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season and simply don’t have anyone that will match up with Waller. If Carr airs the ball outlook for Waller to be a major factor.
When the Raiders drafted Henry Ruggs, I was expecting big things this season, but things have been a bit slow and inconsistent to develop. Nevertheless, when the Raiders signed Nelson Agholor, no one thought that he’d be a factor. Fast forward to Week 12, and Agholor has been a factor and can catch the ball. Agholor is just another option if Carr should have to throw the ball, he has value, and he does have a 14.5 aDOT.
Los Angeles Chargers
- QB Justin Herbert (DK $7,200)
- WR Keenan Allen (DK $8,000)
- WR Mike Williams (DK $5,000)
Justin Herbert has been phenomenal to this point. There isn’t much to say about his performance to this point, and this is a prime spot for him in what should be a high-scoring affair with the Bills, who play defense seemingly when they feel like it. The Bills have no pass rush to speak of, but they will try to confuse Herbert by disguising their coverage as they’ve been doing most of the season. That strategy has worked against the bad quarterbacks like Sam Darnold (twice), but all other quarterbacks that Buffalo has seen have had success. In fact, the Bills have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the last four weeks.
Keenan Allen has been a machine and has been able to stay healthy to this point. Herbert has loved Allen targeting him 19, 7, 11, 12, and 13 times over the last five games, and Allen has scored a touchdown in five of his last six games. Allen lines up in the slot 48 percent of the time, and Bills slot corner has allowed a 101 passer rating and 39 receptions on 60 targets.
Mike Williams might see Tre’Davious White in coverage, but White has been exposed a bit this season from what we’re used to seeing. White has allowed 120 or more yards to his matchup in each of the last two weeks. Now, those receivers happened to be D.K. Metcalf and DeAndre Hopkins, and there is no comparison between those two and Williams. With that said, White has allowed 29 receptions on 40 targets this season and a 131.6 passer rating. Williams is a deep threat, and even if White only allows three or four receptions, one or two of those could go for a long touchdown. Williams’ aDOT is seventh-highest among receivers, and he’s seen 17 deep targets. Couple Williams’ deep threat ability with the Bills’ lack of a pass rush, and we could have a “boom” game from a boom or bust receiver.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- QB Tom Brady (DK $6,600)
- WR Antonio Brown (DK $5,700)
- WR Mike Evans (DK $6,100)
- Teddy Bridgewater (DK $6,300)
- WR Robby Anderson (DK $6,100)
- WR Curtis Samuel (DK $5,100)
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